The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand balance increased in April, as freight volumes were weak but flat m/m, and capacity decreased.
The Volume Index showed significant softness for the second straight month, at 43.4 seasonally adjusted (SA) in April, down from 43.6 in March.
Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research, commented, “Even with some degree of pre-tariff shipping happening, it appears the adverse effects of tariffs are already starting to play out. Declining container ship traffic suggests broadly weak volume will continue in the near term, but the 90-day step down in US/China tariffs is spurring significant activity into Q3.”
The Pricing Index fell 12.1 points m/m in April, to 39.4 (SA) from 51.5 in March, levels not seen since August of 2023, as demand softened following a surge in pre-tariff imports, interrupting the modest momentum in rates.
According to Vieth, “The 12.1-point m/m decline was the third largest in the survey’s 15-year history. The supply side should contract as private fleets end their expansion, tariffs add to equipment costs, and for-hire fleet financials are impacted. However, pricing uncertainty remains elevated with trade policy changing.”
The Capacity Index decreased 4.0 points m/m, to 47.1 in April from 51.1 in March.
He commented, “Unsurprisingly given weak for-hire profits, heightened uncertainty, and higher equipment costs, capacity decreased as fleets choose to delay, or in some cases, opt out completely of new equipment purchases in 2025. Further capacity declines are likely, a necessary component for the cycle to begin an upswing. Unfortunately for fleets, lower demand related to tariffs will likely prolong the recovery.”
Regarding the Supply-Demand Balance, Vieth concluded, “The recent drop in demand, as tariffs went into effect, has resulted in a looser market balance. Weaker economic activity and lower imports are likely to continue to impact volumes in May and June. With private fleets ending their expansion, and for-hire carriers under strain, capacity should continue to gradually exit the market.”
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index is a monthly survey of for-hire trucking service providers. ACT Research converts responses into diffusion indexes, where the neutral or flat activity level is 50. Please contact us at trucks@actresearch.net if you are a for-hire executive interested in participating. In return, participants receive a detailed monthly analysis of the survey data, including Volumes, Freight Rates, Driver Availability, Capacity, Productivity and Purchasing Intentions, plus a complimentary copy of ACT’s Transportation Digest report.
ACT Research Freight Forecast provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index®, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast uses equipment capacity modeling and the firm’s industry economics expertise to provide unprecedented visibility for the future of freight rates, helping businesses in transportation and logistics management plan for the future with confidence.