In September 2025, confidence in the $1.3 trillion U.S. equipment finance industry held steady, with rising expectations for capital expenditure demand, easing credit conditions, and supportive tax policy—though businesses remain cautious amid high interest rates and economic uncertainty. This blog highlights the latest sentiment, key stats and risks shaping the outlook.

Key Stats & Sentiment

• The Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) held at 59.9 in September, almost unchanged from 60.2 in August. That marks four straight months of elevated confidence among leaders in the approximately $1.3 trillion U.S. equipment finance sector.
• On business conditions: about 30.4% of executives expect improvement over the next four months (up from ~26.9% in August), over half expect conditions to stay about the same, and ~17.4% foresee worsening.
• Capital expenditure (capex) demand looks to be picking up: 39.1% of respondents expect demand for leases & loans for equipment/software to increase in the next few months (up from ~26.9% prior month). Still, a non-trivial minority expects a decline. 
• Access to capital is broadly viewed as steady or improving; none of the surveyed expected less access.

Recent Activity & Outlook

• Borrowings for business equipment in August were down ~2% year-over-year, though up ~2.8% compared to July. 
• Credit approval rates have improved: in August, the average approval rate was 78.7%, the highest since December 2021. That suggests loosening or at least less tight credit conditions.
• Core capital goods orders (excluding defense and aircraft) rose unexpectedly in August by 0.6%, defying forecasts of a slight dip. However, shipments of those goods fell by 0.3%, indicating possible lag or logistical constraints.

Policy, Regulation, & Tax Environment

• A recent tax law (“One Big Beautiful Bill Act”) has made permanent some favorable provisions: 100% expensing and EBITDA-based interest deduction, plus a permanent 20% deduction for qualified business income for pass-through entities. These are expected to boost equipment investment. 
• There is also concern that accelerated phase-outs of clean energy tax incentives may dampen investment in certain verticals. 

Themes & Risks

• Cautious optimism: While sentiment is positive, many executives are holding off on aggressive capital outlays. Some are waiting for clearer signals from macro-economy (inflation, interest rates, etc.). The moderate uptake in capex demand reflects that. 
• Interest rates: Borrowing costs remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic norms. The expectation of rate cuts in the future is helping sentiment, but current rates still pose headwinds. 
• Supply side constraints / shipments: The mismatch between rising orders and declining shipments in some core capital goods suggests either supplier constraints, inventory/backlog issues, or delays in production/shipping. 

What to Watch

• Whether the favorable tax rules will translate into stronger capex in Q4 and into 2026.
• The trajectory of interest rates: cuts or pauses could catalyze more investment.
• How policy changes (especially in clean energy, environmental regulation) impact specific sectors that rely heavily on equipment finance.
• The balance between new equipment versus used/refurbished equipment financing, especially given any constraints in supply or rising costs.

Overall, September 2025 in the U.S. equipment finance sector shows a picture of moderate strength: improving confidence, tax policy tailwinds, some loosening of credit, but also caution from businesses facing economic uncertainty.

AI tools were used in the creation of this article, with final edits and fact-checking by the author.