New tractor demand remains subdued, as uneven growth in key freight generating sectors, growth-sapping economic policy, and lingering overcapacity have slowed the path out of the long and ongoing for-hire recession, as published in the latest release of the ACT Research North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“Recent clarity regarding EPA’27 is welcomed, but as we have reiterated, truckers buy trucks when they make money. While regulatory clarity is helpful, at current low levels of carrier profitability and returns on investment, barring an unforeseen shift in economic fortunes, a tractor prebuy is highly unlikely but could spur some marginal activity later in 2026, as supply-demand conditions for carriers improve,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Additionally, the trucking industry is contending with recently enacted §232 tariffs that placed a 25% levy on the value of foreign content in imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses. With the for-hire market entering a third consecutive year of generationally low profitability, and freight rates generally moving sideways, tariff-driven equipment cost increases will help to constrain already weak new US vehicle demand.”
Vieth added, “Vocational, like the tractor market, continues to be hampered in the short- to medium-term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds, and emissions regulations. However, secular trends regarding utilities, roads, and data centers remain positive for construction-related vocational equipment in the long run.”
The list of 2026 demand headwinds is long:
- Freight rates and for-hire carrier profits remain mired at recessionary levels,
- A freight air-pocket happening now that follows an extended tariff-avoiding freight pull-forward,
- Corrosive tariff-driven goods inflation that will weigh on freight volumes,
- A pullback by private fleets after significant fleet expansion in 2023-2024,
- And macro-level uncertainty around US economic policy.
- Tariffs boosting new vehicle prices on top of recession-level market conditions are just one more obstacle in an already obstacle-strewn 2026 demand outlook.
The N.A. CV OUTLOOK reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.