While not the only factor at work, severe weather has kicked the freight cycle into a new stage in recent months, with rates spiking as capacity was frozen, as discussed in ACT Research's latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.

“Capacity contraction from low new equipment demand is also playing a part, so the reversion from weather should see rates fall to a new, higher floor. Aside from weather, freight demand conditions still aren’t wonderful, but received a modest boost from recent tariff changes,” shared Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst.

“With retail inventories lean and a later Lunar New Year this year, we expect freight demand to improve after a soft March and April. But capacity contraction in terms of both equipment and drivers will be challenging to reverse.

“In seasonally adjusted terms, dry van truckload rates held up remarkably in February, ending the month above where they started, even as the market has opened back up. Downward reversion is nearly assured as weather warms, but the supply-driven tightening is currently pushing TL contract rates up in the mid-single-digit percentages for the first time in over four years,” Denoyer concluded.



The monthly 62-page ACT Freight Forecast report provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type for the U.S. and Canada. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty.