Rising flight activity, strong demand for new aircraft, tight aircraft availability and appreciating values place the industry in a solid position for a strong finish to the year, according to Global Jet Capital.
The global economy remained uncertain but resilient in Q3 2026. Several factors contributed to global economic uncertainty in the quarter, including the conflict in the Middle East and the announcement of additional U.S. tariffs.
Although some crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continued, transporting energy out of the region became more costly, driving Brent Crude prices to $115.91 by the end of Q3. In addition, the U.S. implemented a new round of tariffs in July covering 99.4% of U.S. imports. Together, these factors put upward pressure on global inflation, which constrained consumer spending growth and prompted some central banks to raise interest rates.
Still, the global economy continued to grow during the quarter. GDP grew 2.4% year over year, while OECD unemployment remained stable.vii AI-related capital investment also continued to drive global economic activity.
For these reasons, economists expect global growth to continue through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, despite the uncertainty. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Oxford Economics expects more modest (but still respectable) growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027.
With steady economic growth and the wealth creation that accompanies it, the business jet market remains well positioned for the remainder of 2026.
Demand for business aviation has grown since mid-2024. In Q3 2026, business jet departures increased 1.3% year over year. North America led global growth in flight activity, with departures rising 2.4%. In contrast, regional geopolitical events in the Middle East contributed to a 1.2% year-over-year decline in departures across the rest of the world. Fractional operators remained the leading growth segment, posting solid gains throughout the quarter. Departures also increased 1.1% from Q2 2026, consistent with historical seasonal patterns following strong spring travel activity.
Year-to-date departures were up 2.7% through the end of September 2026. North America led this growth, with departures increasing 3.8% compared with the same period in 2025, while flight activity in the rest of the world remained roughly in line with 2025 levels.
This strong performance reflects the expansion of the business aviation user base over the past five years. Supported by the industry’s core value propositions—personal safety, flexibility, productivity, and comfort—and bolstered by continued global wealth creation, flight operations are expected to remain steady through the remainder of 2026.
Based on available data, year-to-date transaction dollar volume through Q3 2026 decreased 5.1% from the same period in 2025. The downturn follows an active end to 2025, when Q4 transaction dollar volume increased 19.3% year over year.
However, analysis of other data sources, including OEM reports and Global Jet Capital’s field intelligence, indicates that delays in official data reporting may account for a portion of the decline. As additional transactions are reported, we expect 2026 results to align more closely with historical trends.
As reported, new deliveries declined during the first three quarters of 2026, with unit volume falling 16.6% and dollar volume decreasing 11.8%. As additional transactions are reported, however, we expect final 2026 new-delivery transaction data to be largely on target. OEM commentary during the quarter reflected continued progress in resolving the remaining isolated supply chain and labor constraints on new aircraft production.
Through Q3 2026, year-to-date pre-owned transaction unit volume was down 10.6%, while dollar volume was up 3.0% year over year. The divergence was attributable to continued stability in aircraft values and strong demand for heavy jets.
The decline in unit volume was driven by delayed transaction reporting and an unfavorable comparison with an unusually active start to 2025. Based on historical reporting lags, we estimate that pre-owned transactions declined roughly 2% year to date. Much of this decline reflects year-over-year weakness in Q1. In Q1 2025, pre-owned unit volume increased 37.4% year over year as some buyers accelerated transactions to close deals ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs. Without that time pressure, Q1 2026 transaction unit volume declined 16.7% from the prior-year period. While that effect has moderated as Q2 and Q3 comparisons have normalized, it continues to weigh on year-to-date results. Market activity remains healthy, and transactions are expected to continue at a steady pace through the remainder of the year.
The full report can be found here.