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U.S. Middle Market Revenue Grew 12% in Q3, Golub Capital Altman Index

October 22, 2018, 07:05 AM
Filed Under: Economy

Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index (GCAI) experienced year-over-year revenue growth of 11.75 percent and earnings growth of 10.83 percent during the first two months of the third quarter of 2018. This compares to year-over-year revenue growth of 11.15 percent and earnings growth of 12.59 percent in the second quarter of 2018.

"This quarter's Golub Capital Altman Index showed the highest year-over-year revenue growth rate since its inception, marking a fourth consecutive quarter of record revenue growth,” said Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital. “EBITDA growth was also exceptionally strong, suggesting U.S. middle market companies have done well in controlling costs amidst a tight labor market. Our data continues to show strong momentum in the U.S. economy that could help offset the negative impact of tariffs. We expect to see another robust GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2018, likely in excess of 3 percent or even 4 percent."

Renowned credit expert Dr. Edward I. Altman said, "The Technology sector once again led the way for earnings growth, posting year-over-year EBITDA growth of more than 20 percent. The Healthcare sector continued to show welcome signs of a turnaround in profitability, with positive EBITDA growth now in three of the last four quarters. One might expect to see softness in the Consumer and Industrial sectors, with escalating trade tensions and meaningfully higher interest rates, crude oil prices and gasoline prices compared to the same period last year. We have not yet seen a material impact in our data, although it may take more time for any impact to register. In short, the impressive revenue and earnings growth across all sectors of the Golub Capital Altman Index suggest the strength of the U.S. economy is broad-based."

The GCAI, which is produced by Golub Capital in collaboration with Altman, is the first and only index based on actual revenue and earnings (defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA) for middle market companies. It measures the median revenue and earnings growth of more than 150 private U.S. companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital, a leading middle market lender. Reported shortly before public company quarterly earnings season, the GCAI has served as a reliable indicator of the overall growth rates in revenue and earnings of public companies in market indexes such as the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600 (S&P 600), as well as quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to statistical back-testing dating back to 2012, when data began to be tracked.

The size and diversity of the Golub Capital loan portfolio ensure that the confidentiality of all company-specific information used in the index is maintained in both the aggregate and industry segment data.

Officials said they believe the results (1) are representative of the general performance of middle market companies, which are a major contributor to U.S. private sector employment; (2) can be easily compared to the performance of the public companies that make up major stock indexes; (3) are relevant to the aggregate economic performance of the U.S. economy and (4) provide timely information for the investment community.

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