A new report from Navigant Research examines the global market for medium and heavy duty trucks across hybrid, electric, and fuel cell powertrains, providing forecasts for annual sales and vehicle population, through 2027.
With the potential to provide lower operational costs, noise reduction, and environmental benefits, electric trucks are attractive to fleets, yet high upfront costs are still prohibitive. Nonetheless, manufacturers continue to work toward commercially viable electric trucks, thanks to mounting pressure from governments to reduce pollutants from diesel fuel combustion and tackle greenhouse gas emissions. According to this report, the overall medium and heavy duty truck market is projected to continue its reliance on conventional diesel powertrain for the next decade, but hybrid and electric powertrains populations will increase, with volumes expected to grow from about 125,500 to 1.66 million from 2017 to 2027.
“We could see a breakthrough in adoption of electrified trucks once total cost of ownership benefits can be clearly demonstrated for fleet operators,” says Lisa Jerram, principal research analyst with Navigant Research. “For the next few years, trials and small-scale deployments by major fleets and manufacturers will help clarify potential cost benefits and could set in motion a significant increase in orders for electrified trucks.”
While the electric truck market has lagged behind the electric bus market, the sector is likely to benefit from its progress as the cost of key components comes down thanks to increasing volumes. Until this occurs, electric trucks deployments are expected to be focused in places where there are incentives or other government programs in place.
The report, Market Data: Electric Drive Trucks, analyzes the global market for medium and heavy duty trucks with the following powertrains: gasoline hybrid, gasoline plug-in hybrid, diesel hybrid, diesel plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and hydrogen fuel cells. The report provides an analysis of key market and technology issues, market drivers, and profiles of over 35 vehicle manufacturers and component suppliers. Global market forecasts for annual sales and vehicle population, broken out by medium and heavy duty vehicle segment, country, and powertrain type, extend through 2027. The Excel databook accompanying this report also includes pivot tables for truck sales and population segmented by country, medium and heavy duty segment, and powertrain type. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.