Bombardier Aerospace released its annual 20-year forecast for the business and commercial aircraft market numbers.
As the business and commercial aircraft markets continue to recover from the industry downturn, signs of forward momentum are beginning to emerge. While demand for new aircraft orders will continue to come from established and developed markets, the growth potential in emerging markets such as China, India, Russia and Latin America is predicted to play an increasingly important role in the global aviation marketplace. With fuel prices and environmental concerns continuing to rise, operators across both industries continue to focus on fleet optimization and aircraft efficiency.
Bombardier is confident in the strong, long-term potential of the business aircraft industry and forecasts a total of 24,000 business jet deliveries from 2013 to 2032 in the segments in which Bombardier competes*, which represents approximately $650 billion** in industry revenues. Bombardier’s Business Aircraft Market Forecast anticipates 9,800 aircraft deliveries, worth $269 billion, during the 2013 to 2022 period, and 14,200 aircraft, worth $381 billion, from 2023 to 2032.
The business aviation market continues to recover, and while current macroeconomic indicators are mixed, the overall trend for the world economy is stable to positive. It is expected that as confidence returns to world markets, aircraft orders and backlogs will expand and deliveries will grow. While business jet orders and deliveries for 2013 are expected to be comparable to those of 2012, Bombardier forecasts that they will begin to improve in 2014 and that the industry will surpass its prior delivery peak year of 2008 by as early as 2016. It is also anticipated that with demand for business jets shifting towards emerging markets, the fleet of Large and Medium category aircraft will grow, with the Large aircraft category demonstrating the fastest growth.
Over the forecast period, Bombardier predicts North America will receive the greatest number of new business jet deliveries between 2013 and 2032, followed by Europe which, despite its continued economic challenges, remains the second largest market. China is forecast to become the third largest region in terms of deliveries over the next 20 years with 1,000 deliveries from 2013 to 2022, and 1,420 deliveries from 2023 to 2032. Bombardier also expects key growth markets including Brazil, India, Russia/the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Mexico, and Turkey to receive a significant share of business jet deliveries during the next 20 years.
Bombardier predicts that – similar to commercial aviation – future challenges facing the business aviation sector include rising fuel prices and increased environmental awareness. Through its new aircraft development programs, Bombardier continues to invest in innovative transportation solutions that include the Global 7000, Global 8000, Learjet 70, Learjet 75, Learjet 85 and Challenger 350 jets.
To read the full Bombardier press release, click here.