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ACT Research: CV Supply Constraints Dictating Lower Production Forecasts

November 01, 2021, 07:00 AM
Filed Under: Transportation

According to ACT Research’s Transportation Digest, near-term signs of demand remain strong, while supply constraints dictate that ACT Research’s forecasts for the next year remain under pressure.

“For heavy trucks, no less than for medium and light vehicles, procuring supplies and assembling product has become a top management priority,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “The struggles of manufacturers, particularly with semiconductors, were typified in an OEM press release on October 4. What holds for that particular OEM is true for all makers of heavy-duty trucks in North America. Indeed, it applies across all vehicle classes and global geographies.”

Vieth explained further, “The semiconductor problem has become more acute as we have progressed through this year, and appears set to hobble the industry well into 2022 – and perhaps even beyond. And semiconductors and electrical assemblies are not the only components experiencing either capacity shortages or rapidly escalating prices, or both.”

Vieth concluded by sharing his thoughts about how this impacts future CV production, “ACT has rolled back heavy-duty truck forecasts in the past. But that was when the economy weakened and freight declined. This circumstance is unique, a forecast haircut when demand is strong, customers are increasingly eager to obtain trucks, and backlogs are rising. With still-healthy demand, our focus is on supply constraints, inflation, and production issues, because they are the levers that will dictate market direction in the next few quarters.”

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