The national Citizens Business Conditions Index (CBCI) held steady at 50.9 in the first quarter of 2025. The reading is generally consistent with the 4Q24 level of 51.0, suggesting that business conditions remained positive to start the year despite growing macroeconomic uncertainty throughout the period.

Solid corporate revenue trends were the main driver of the positive momentum. Citizens’ proprietary data showed continued revenue growth across most industries and geographies, with the Energy and Utilities sectors standing out as notable exceptions.

“Business leaders entered 2025 optimistic about the year ahead,” said Eric Merlis, managing director and co-head of global markets, Citizens. “That initial optimism helped buoy the economy in the first quarter, but the forward outlook from here is more uncertain.”

Macroeconomic factors were generally neutral to the index on a national level, but signs pointed to slowing momentum as the quarter wore on.

• New business applications had a neutral impact, suggesting some cautiousness.

• National employment data, as measured by initial jobless claims, was also neutral. However, some states, such as Delaware, experienced outsized impacts from federal government restructuring.

• Similarly, the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services indexes were both expansionary for the quarter, but sentiment cooled noticeably in March as macroeconomic uncertainty grew.

Overall, the first quarter CBCI reveals a resilient business environment that is starting to feel the impacts of softening business and consumer sentiment as macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty persist. While the ultimate outcome remains to be seen, the second quarter index is likely to more fully reflect the economic impacts of evolving federal policies, including ongoing tariff negotiations.

“Overall, our clients continued to perform well in the first quarter despite elevated market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty,” added Merlis. “As the operating environment evolves, we are working closely with them to provide thoughtful advice and help them to navigate through challenges.”