Overall freight expenditures turned positive year over year in April for the first time in 28 months. It was not higher shipping volumes that drove the increased spending, however. Volumes were down 3.6%, but rates across all land modes were higher, according to the most recent data from Cass Information Systems Inc.

Cass Freight Index - Shipments

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose 0.4% in April m/m.

• The decline in shipments narrowed to 3.6% y/y in April from 5.3% in March.
• In seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, the index rose 0.3% m/m, after a 2.1% drop in March.

The trade war is having a variety of effects on freight volumes, with significant decreases likely in May and June in international volumes, but likely a rebound in Q3 due to the recent 90-day U.S./China trade deal. Meanwhile, U.S. consumers are still largely buying pre-tariff goods, though retailers will soon start to run out of these.

Volumes may also be temporarily supported in the coming months as consumers scoop up pre-tariff goods before prices go up.

After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. So far, the Cass shipments index is trending toward another decline in 2025.

In May, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 1% y/y on the normal seasonal pattern.

Cass Freight Index - Expenditures

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 3.3% m/m in April. March's 2.0% y/y decline turned to a positive 1.2%, the first increase in 28 months.

This y/y increase in spending was more than explained by higher rates, as shipments fell 3.6%. We infer rates rose 5.1% y/y in April.

• In seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, the Expenditures index rose 2.2% m/m, with shipments up 0.3% and rates up 1.8%, led by LTL, as TL linehaul rates fell slightly m/m.  

This index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so it is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®, which isolates linehaul rates.

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.

Inferred Freight Rates

The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index rose 2.9% m/m in April, and 1.8% m/m SA.

Year over year, While the 5.1% increase is up from 3.5% in March and outpacing most freight markets, mix is always a factor, and the trend is consistent with gradually increasing rates across freight modes.

• Tougher comparisons in May and June suggest the rate  may slow.
• After a 7% decline in 2024, freight rates are on track for low-single-digit increases in 2025.

Based on the normal seasonal pattern, this index would be flat y/y in May and is trending toward a small increase for 2025.

Truckload Linehaul Index

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 0.5% m/m in April, after a 0.1% decline in March.

• The y/y increase slowed to 0.9% in April from 1.5% in March, as rate momentum in the truckload market stalled as pre-tariff shipping was not enough to tighten the market balance in a seasonally soft April.

This index fell 10% in 2023 and another 3% in 2024. Where it will go in 2025 is a big question.

Freight Expectations

It’s been 40 months since the first y/y decline in shipments this cycle, and as the freight market downturn wears on, fleets are not particularly well-positioned to weather an even longer storm. So, it’s significant that expenditures turned positive for the first time in 28 months, but we wouldn’t suggest it’ll be smooth sailing from here.

The sample of for-hire TL fleets in the chart below includes many of the biggest and best-run fleets in the U.S. If they’re struggling, the industry at large is on life support. The public TL fleets’ net margins hit a 15-year low in Q1 at just 2.4%.

Although freight rates have started to rise, it is still not enough to offset carriers' cost headwinds  broadly. The trade war is likely to extend the for-hire freight recession as higher prices reduce goods affordability and consumers’ real incomes. With the demand outlook choppy, it's not clear when the transportation industry's finances will turn up.

Cass Information System's forecasts through 2027 are detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of US freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. The monthly report provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.