Cass Information Systems this week reported that two of its most followed data points—freight volumes and truckload linehaul rates—held steady versus May, yet June marked the 29th consecutive month of year-over-year volume declines—well beyond a typical freight down-cycle. 

Tariffs continue to weigh on international trade and risk further impacting the affordability of goods and real incomes. With this uncertain outlook, a meaningful rebound for the transportation sector remains elusive.

Cass Freight Index - Shipments

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index was down 0.2% m/m in June, both in nominal and seasonally adjusted terms, as the May and June seasonal factors are nearly identical.

• The y/y decline in shipments was 2.4% in June, after a 4.0% y/y decline in May.

The trade war is having a variety of effects, with a few waves of pre-tariff inventory building and subsequent drawing down, but volumes were steady from May.

After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and so far, is trending toward another decline in 2025.

In July, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 5% y/y on the normal seasonal pattern, but could exceed seasonality given the recent rise in imports.

Cass Freight Index - Expenditures

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 1.2% m/m in June. The y/y gain improved to 2.6% from 0.8% in May, marking the third straight y/y increase after more than two years of declines.

The y/y increase was more than explained by higher rates, as shipments fell 2.4%. We infer rates rose 5.2% y/y in June, partly due to changing modal mix, as in recent months, with more truckloads and lower LTL mix. (As a reminder, our inferred rates data series measures the change in the cost of a shipment and is diversified across all U.S. domestic modes.)

• In SA terms, the index fell 2.9% m/m, with shipments down 0.2% and rates down 2.8%. 

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.

Inferred Freight Rates

The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index fell 1.0% m/m in June, and 2.8% SA.

While the 5.2% y/y increase is outpacing most freight markets, mix is always a factor, and mix is currently shifting toward TL from LTL. This is typically a positive sign of an improving freight cycle, but it is currently more likely a head-fake related to pre-tariff shipping.

• After a 7% decline in 2024, freight rates are so far on track to rise in 2025.

Based on the normal seasonal pattern, this index would accelerate y/y in July, though a reversion in mix could slow it down. We do not get the sense market rates are accelerating, as the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index confirms. 

Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.

Truckload Linehaul Index

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which measures per-mile changes in linehaul rates, rose 0.4% m/m in June, after a 0.8% decline in May.

• The y/y increase accelerated to 1.9% in June from 0.6% in May, mainly due to an easier comparison. Pre-tariff shipping has not tightened the market balance even as seasonality improved in May.

This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and after a 1.3% increase in 1H’25, is on track for a small increase in 2025.

Freight Expectations

The effects of the highest tariffs since the 1930s are very uncertain. They’ll be limited by the 75%–80% of freight already made and consumed domestically, but the impacts on international trade have been and will continue to be significant.

Forward-looking visibility remains highly dependent on policy developments and legal challenges. The uncertainty has lowered the economic outlook, and pre-tariff inventory building will lead to destocking regardless of the outcome of trade negotiations in the coming months.

The effects of tariffs may worsen, as higher goods prices reduce affordability and real incomes. With this outlook, the cycle upturn for the transportation industry remains elusive.