ACT Research released its July For-Hire Trucking Index a monthly survey of for-hire trucking service providers.
VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index turned positive for the first time in six months, rising to 52.3 (SA) in July, from 41.2 in June, as the April tariff delays spurred another round of pull forwards ahead of August deadlines. This lines up with near-record loaded imports in July, similar to 1H’22 levels.
Consumer spending continues to outpace inflation, but consumers have so far been insulated from price increases, as tariff costs have yet to be fully passed on to the consumer. This won’t last much longer, as retailers have been raising prices in recent weeks, and with producer prices rising, passthroughs seem set to rise soon. On the positive side, several recent signals suggest the private fleet insourcing phenomena may be starting to reverse.
PRICING INDEX:
The Pricing Index increased 6.5 points m/m in July, to 50.7 (SA) from 44.2 in June. After US tractor sales rose in Q2 as tariff-free inventory sold well, declines have resumed, necessary to help tighten capacity. In addition to lower tractor sales in July, the pre-tariff freight demand pull forward, likely contributed to the rate stabilization. US tractor sales are slowing as tariff-free inventory is depleted, but two factors remain impediments to improved pricing: 1) Overcapacity remains, demonstrated by soft spot trends in the typically seasonally strong months of May and June; 2) Tariffs. While more capacity exits are still required to turn the freight cycle, demand is needed as well. Goods inflation from tariffs will likely weigh on volumes later this year, making a strong recovery unlikely in 2025.
CAPACITY INDEX:
The Capacity Index decreased 0.8 points m/m, to 46.0 in July from 46.8 in June. Publicly traded TL carriers’ profit margins remain near to the lowest levels since 2010, and on top of that, steel, aluminum and parts tariffs have added thousands to the cost of a tractor. As a result of challenging operating conditions, trade/economic uncertainty and equipment cost increases, many fleets are opting to significantly reduce capital spending in 2025.
This index has been at or below the neutral 50 level for 24 of the past 27 months.
DRIVERS:
The Driver Availability Index ticked up 1.1 points, to 49.0 in July from 47.9 in June, marking the second time in 39 months the index has indicated a deteriorating driver supply.
After three years of weak rates/profitability and for-hire volumes, cost-cutting measures are taking drivers and driving schools out of the market. The medium and large fleets in our survey have seen a steady supply through the long freight downturn, but driver availability has recently begun to contract amid an uncertain and soft freight outlook, and the immigration crackdown is likely a factor. While a tighter driver supply is a potential catalyst for a new cycle, demand is needed too.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS:
Fleet purchase intentions fell 3.0% m/m in July, with 40% of respondents planning on buying new equipment in the next three months. While a relatively strong reading for 2025, it remains well below the 54% long-term average.
Overall, buying sentiment is expected to remain below the long-term average as we enter the 13th quarter of a for-hire downturn, compared to the six-to-eight quarter historical average. Fleets are cash strapped, and many are delaying or foregoing new equipment purchases altogether. As we perpetually say: When truckers make money, they buy trucks. Current conditions are unsupportive of significant fleet investment.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:
The Supply-Demand Balance increased in July to 56.4 (SA), from 44.4 in June, on an increase in volumes and a downtick in capacity. The recent increase is likely temporary as demand surged ahead of August tariff announcements, but the payback period following multiple freight pull forwards is poised to begin. Even with modest pass through, the inflationary effects of tariffs will likely lead to more goods demand softness in the months to come.
The supply-demand balance will be supported by ongoing capacity reductions but is unlikely to improve meaningfully, as lower demand related to the impact of tariffs counters the declines in capacity. A potential Supreme Court ruling upholding lower court decisions sending most tariffs to Congress could significantly improve the outlook.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX:
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity increased 2.3 points m/m, to 49.9 (SA) in July, supported by the pull forward in demand and another downtick in capacity. While improved, the productivity index remains at flat levels and will likely be choppy in the short term, as demand and capacity likely decline.