With 2026 orderboards opening this month, the next three-to-four months of Class 8 orders will be critical for 2026, but uncertainty abounds, as published in the latest release of the ACT Research North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“On the tractor front, carrier profitability remains under pressure, inching closer to year four of the for-hire market downturn. The group of publicly traded TL carriers’ aggregated margins in Q2 were near 2008 recession levels, and the frontloading of goods ahead of tariffs in 1H of this year elevates the risk of a freight air pocket into the end of 2025,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Additionally, while the US consumer has remained resilient, signs of labor market weakness, and the fact that the full brunt of tariff costs has yet to be passed on to the consumer, are further risks to goods demand.
“On the vocational side, a trio of headwinds has greatly reduced demand. First, the EPA’s March “review” announcement quickly ended vocational prebuying ahead of EPA’27, with many fleets believing that EPA’27 low NOx regulations ceased to be a future concern,” Vieth added. “On top of regulatory matters, there are funding freezes delaying infrastructure project starts, despite Congress having already appropriated the funding. Lastly, deepening softness in housing and a construction pullback, solid freight generating segments, adds to vocational woes. Currently, elevated new home inventories are an added obstacle to recovery.”
“Vocational inventories are just off record levels, and backlogs are currently at five-year lows. Steep production cuts have already occurred to help alleviate backlog pressure, but elevated inventory remains a challenge for future production,” he concluded.
The N.A. CV OUTLOOK reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.