The freight market was nearing balance in late 2024 and early 2025, with rates and volume trends improving. Since the start of the trade war, momentum has slowed sharply, as discussed in the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.

“Extra pre-tariff equipment purchases and ongoing volume softness have kept truckload market conditions from tightening this year, and most of the adverse effects of tariffs are still to come,” according to Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious. Container shipping activity is set to fall sharply, which will likely affect intermodal most acutely from a surface freight perspective.

“We see growing evidence of private fleets reining in capacity after a major expansion from 2022-2024. Class 8 tractor production will drop by more than 30% from 1H to 2H this year, and this reversal will eventually support a recovery in for-hire demand,” Denoyer concluded.

Freight Forecast Report Overview

The monthly 58-page ACT freight forecast provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes and rates. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty.