The ongoing trade war and regulatory limbo continue to weigh on the for-hire market recovery, and by extension, tractor demand, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“For for-hire carriers, still managing the longest downturn in recent history, initial tariffs in 1H did two things: 1) Temporarily pushed retail sales above replacement levels, stalling a necessary capacity contraction and prolonging a rate recovery; and 2) 1H’s large macro demand pull-forward has elevated the risk of weaker goods demand in 2H, potentially prolonging the path to recovery,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst.
“Vocational, like the tractor market, continues to be hampered in the short-to-medium term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds, and emissions regulations,” Vieth added. “Also, softness in end markets like housing are not helpful. However, secular trends regarding utilities, roads, and data centers remain positive for vocational in the long run.”
“With freight rates remaining at low levels, a potential freight air-pocket inbound after a large goods pull-forward, tariff-driven goods inflation inbound, a pullback by private fleets after their significant 2023-2024 market share grab, uncertainty surrounding EPA’27, and ongoing uncertainty around US economic policy, there is little evidence to support a more constructive 2026 outlook. Additionally, the newly announced §232 tariffs on imported heavy trucks adds to uncertainty in the short term,” he concluded.
NA CV Forecast Report Overview
The NA CV forecast reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.