Cass Information Systems Inc. has released its January 2026 Cass Transportation Index Report, which showed that, among other things, truckload rates are on the rise.

Cass Freight Index - Shipments

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 7.1% y/y and 4.9% m/m in January, or 2.0% m/m in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, reaching a new cycle low.

The normal seasonal trend would have the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index down 11% y/y in February, although arebound from the weather could support volumes above this.

Cass Freight Index - Expenditures

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 3.6% m/m in January. Expenditures were up 0.6% from the year-ago level in January, after a 0.6% y/y dip in December.

The flattish results of the past few months were a combination of lower shipments and higher rates. With shipments down considerably, we can conclude higher freight costs.

• In SA terms, the index rose 0.4% m/m, after a 0.2% m/m increase in December.

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. In 2025, the index declined by 0.5%.

Truckload Linehaul Index

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 1.7% m/m in January, after a 1.0% increase in December.

• Rates rose 3.2% y/y as weather challenged volumes. Warmer weather should lead to some trend reversion, but for February at least, spot rates are likely to accelerate.

• This index is mostly comprised of contract rates, and anecdotally we hear about more shippers initiating one-year bids, suggesting movement in the cycle beyond just weather effects.

• This index reflects the whole for-hire market, both spot and contract rates.

This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and turned up to a 1.8% increase in 2025.

ACT Research: Freight Expectations 

After a winter heavy with severe weather, the current forecast for most of the U.S. includes record warmth, so a considerable driver of higher truckload rates is reversing. However, capacity is also contracting in terms of equipment, drivers, and operating authorities. While the post-pandemic private fleet expansion continues to keep it from the for-hire market, U.S. freight demand is growing.  

The freight economy continues to grow, and the for-hire recovery will begin when private fleet capacity, which has been in contraction since 2025, becomes tight. This did just happen, in fact, but the real test will be during softer seasonal periods like March and April.

Fleets are getting excited that the long-awaited recovery is here. Even 2% contract rate increases are a relief after four years of nothing or worse. While near-term reversion from the weather may slow the trend, we expect tighter capacity to lead to moderate truckload rate increases in 2026.

Forecasts through 2027 are detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. We provide monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.