FTR reports that North American (N.A.) Class 8 preliminary net orders subsided in July to 22,000 units, down 31% from June but up 75% year over year (y/y). Replacement demand, firmer freight rates, improving utilization, and a moderate pre-buy to avoid new emissions changes continue to support the market. However, most calendar 2026 truck production is already committed, and manufacturers have yet to open 2027 order boards, so build slots are constrained.
Through July, net orders for 2026 to date were up 120% compared to the same period last year. Orders for the current order season, measured from September 2025 through July 2026, were up 39% y/y. Class 8 orders totaled 344,823 units over the past 12 months.
Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “With calendar 2026 production essentially sold out, attention shifts to decisions on model year 2027 engine technology, pricing, and build timing. Almost all model year 2027 engines are expected to carry manufacturer upcharges tied to compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency’s 2027 NOx regulation. However, EPA’s proposed revisions to the 2027 NOx rule, published on July 14, introduce considerable flexibility for truck and engine manufacturers to address fleet demand.
“For example, under EPA’s planned changes, manufacturers could continue building current-technology engines beyond 2026 indefinitely, subject to the payment of nonconformance penalties (NCPs), which presumably will be passed along to truck buyers. Several engine manufacturers have already announced plans to use NCPs to offer both current and new platforms well into 2027, and others are considering doing so.
“Overall, July’s preliminary order volume suggests that Class 8 demand remains healthy as activity normalizes from unusually strong winter and spring levels. The next phase of the cycle will depend more on production-related factors than on overall demand, including whether EPA’s proposed flexibility delivers a smoother transition and a longer, shallower post-pre-buy decline in the market," Moyer concluded.