According to ACT Research’s latest North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK released in October, Class 8 preliminary orders in September totaled 18,700 units, down 9.5% year-over-year, as regulatory uncertainty and supply chain challenges continue to cloud fleet planning and equipment demand. Meanwhile, US trailer net orders surged more than 55% month-over-month, with orders up 40% year-to-date through August, signaling renewed momentum as 2027 orderboards open early.
The economy story is mixed. While underlying private domestic demand in the US economy reached its strongest growth rate in over three years in Q2’26, persistent shocks from tariffs, elevated energy prices, and rising interest rates are constraining purchasing power and raising business costs. AI-driven investment and a resilient manufacturing sector are offsetting continued weakness in housing, but higher borrowing costs and supply chain disruptions are tempering demand for capital goods.
“Fleets are eager to replace aging equipment and prepare for anticipated cost increases, but the ability to plan remains hampered by economic and regulatory uncertainty as well, at least into the medium-term, the evolving supply chain landscape,” said Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “The recent decline in Class 8 orders in part reflects not only these headwinds, but materially higher backlogs now than at this time last year, and the impact of uncertainty around the final EPA’27 rule. Rather than a sudden drop in underlying demand, in the case of Class 8, fleets weigh their options in a shifting market.”
Vieth added, “In the trailer segment, strong order activity is encouraging, but the next test will be the industry’s ability to ramp production quickly into a rising demand environment. Many new suppliers, brought in to navigate around recent tariffs, remain untested at scale, and shortages of key materials like steel and aluminum are emerging. The challenge ahead will be matching production capacity with rising demand amid ongoing cost pressures.”
The N.A. CV OUTLOOK reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report's objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks.