Fitch Ratings expects global aircraft lessors’ credit profiles to remain resilient despite a more challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, according to a new report. Strong supply-demand conditions, sound asset quality, disciplined leverage, stable funding access and solid liquidity support ratings. However, Fitch has revised its 2027 sector outlook for global aircraft lessors to Deteriorating from Neutral, reflecting macroeconomic headwinds, elevated fuel prices, geopolitical risks and the potential for weaker airline credit quality.

Air travel demand remains healthy, although operating conditions became more volatile in 2026. The Iran conflict has disrupted oil and jet fuel markets and weighed on Middle East traffic. Sustained high fuel prices, airspace disruption and higher borrowing costs could weaken airline credit profiles. However, the direct effect on aircraft lessors should remain limited by diversified fleets, fixed-rate lease revenues, sound liquidity and pricing power in a supply-constrained market.

Consolidation remains a key sector theme as scale becomes more valuable amid aircraft scarcity, high funding needs and rising operating complexity. Larger platforms are better positioned to secure original equipment manufacturer delivery positions, access capital markets and manage fleet transitions. Recent transactions include Sumisho Air Lease Corporation’s acquisition by a Sumitomo- and SMBC Aviation Capital Limited-led consortium in May 2026, and Dubai Aerospace Enterprise Ltd’s acquisition of Macquarie Air Finance Holdings Limited in July 2026.

Aircraft supply constraints continue to support lease rates, aircraft values and fleet utilization. Original equipment manufacturers have ramped up production, but engine and spare-parts shortages and other bottlenecks will still constrain supply over the medium to long term. As such, demand for new-technology, fuel-efficient aircraft remains robust and Fitch-rated lessors generally maintain high-quality portfolios, with young fleets and high shares of narrowbody aircraft.

Fitch-rated lessors’ capital structures remain sound. Strong internal earnings generation supports stable debt-to-tangible equity ratios, which averaged 2.7x across the peer set at end-2Q26. Aggregate liquidity coverage for Fitch-rated lessors was comfortably above 2x in 2025. This exceeds Fitch’s 1.2x investment grade downgrade threshold, although coverage may vary by issuer because of exposure to orderbooks and associated funding need. Unsecured debt maturities are generally well laddered, although some lessors face higher refinancing needs in 2027.