The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index showed the supply-demand balance strengthened in September, as freight volumes and pricing increased while capacity contracted.
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index is a monthly survey of for-hire trucking service providers. ACT Research converts responses into diffusion indexes, where the neutral or flat activity level is 50.
VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index rose 4.1 points m/m, to 60.3 (SA) in September. Demand is recovering somewhat, but this volume strength for fleets is also due to tighter industrial supply. Our Volume Index has performed better than the recovering, but modest, overall demand environment and is partly because lower capacity is shifting freight demand to more reliable carriers. Anecdotally, our fleets are not seeing much growth in industrial activity outside of data centers.
For-hire volumes should continue to benefit from growing capacity constraints, even in a broadly soft demand environment.
FREIGHT RATES INDEX:
The Freight Rate Index jumped 4.8 points in September to 69.5 (SA). Market balance has swung decisively in favor of fleets this year, and capacity continues to tighten, with enforcement of new driver regulations ongoing after about 18 months of underinvestment in equipment. These factors have added extraordinary momentum to the rate cycle. However, with fewer bids happening at this time of the year, that momentum has slowed a little from Q2. Especially for shippers trying to grow, capacity is a major challenge this year. Tightening market dynamics are likely to continue to drive rates higher.
CAPACITY INDEX:
The Freight Rate Index jumped 4.8 points in September to 69.5 (SA). Market balance has swung decisively in favor of fleets this year, and capacity continues to tighten, with enforcement of new driver regulations ongoing after about 18 months of underinvestment in equipment. These factors have added extraordinary momentum to the rate cycle. However, with fewer bids happening at this time of the year, that momentum has slowed a little from Q2. Especially for shippers trying to grow, capacity is a major challenge this year. Tightening market dynamics are likely to continue to drive rates higher.
DRIVER AVAILABILITY INDEX:
The driver shortage moderated to less tight in September, as our Driver Availability Index rose to 38.4 from 35.9 in August. A shift to a tighter market was a long time coming, but the raft of new federal rules and regulations appear to be the main causes. Anywhere below the 8-year average of 46 constitutes a shortage, in our view. After an initial plunge as the FMCSA purged nondomiciled CDLs in early 2026, driver availability has become less-worse, but the struggle between ongoing enforcement removing capacity and new entrants suggest it will be harder than usual to find drivers for an extended period.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS INDEX:
Fleet purchasing intentions decreased 1pp m/m, to 56% in September from 57% in August. With fleet profitability improving, as evidenced by Q2’s nearly three-year high for carrier margins amongst the cohort of publicly traded TL carriers, the percentage of fleets expecting to buy equipment has risen the past few months, and tracks with Class 8 tractor sales rising above replacement in Q3 after six-quarters below. With fleets looking to right-size aging equipment, and with regulatory, tariff, and inflation related cost increases on the horizon, fleets aren’t lacking impetus to buy.
As contract rates and fleet profitability continue to improve in the second half of the year, and as we near the introduction of new engines, we expect equipment purchasing intentions to rise accordingly.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE INDEX:
The Supply-Demand Balance rebounded in September, rising to 60.9 from 56.2 (SA) in August, as volumes improved and capacity contracted. While the market felt a bit looser seasonally in Q3, this portends tight conditions as seasonality picks up in the next few months. Despite a sluggish goods economy, the capacity correction is keeping supply tight and creating improved for-hire trucking demand. While a degree of retail inventory restocking seems to have begun, it will be limited by the jump in interest rates. Enforcement of new regulations continues, keeping driver availability tight, and equipment orders are being pressured by the engine transition. So, a supply-led rising market balance may persist.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX:
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity increased 8.1 points m/m, to 59.6 (SA) in September from 51.5 in August, as volumes jumped and capacity declined.