Global consulting firm J.S. Held published the results of its Q4 2026 Lending Climate in America survey, revealing greater optimism among US lenders about the economic outlook, even as underwriting remains disciplined. Lenders' weighted average grade for near-term US economic performance increased from 2.26 in Q3 to 2.86 in Q4, while the long-term grade rose from 2.04 to 2.24. Despite the improved outlook, 57% of lenders expect to maintain current loan structures, 28% expect to tighten them, and only 15% expect to relax them, suggesting that greater economic confidence has not yet translated into materially easier credit structures.
Lender Confidence in the US Economy Improves
Lenders expressed greater confidence in the US economic outlook in Q4, reversing the more cautious sentiment reported in the prior quarter. The weighted average grade for near-term US economic performance increased from 2.26 in Q3 to 2.86 in Q4, while the long-term grade improved from 2.04 to 2.24. The full survey results provide additional context on the distribution of lender grades across both time horizons, showing that while sentiment improved, expectations remain measured rather than uniformly positive.
"The improvement in economic sentiment is encouraging, but the survey does not suggest lenders believe risk has disappeared. Expectations for interest rates have shifted higher, and geopolitical and policy risks remain prominent. That helps explain why greater confidence in the economy has not translated into more relaxed loan structures as lenders look ahead to 2027," said Michael Jacoby, Senior Managing Director and Strategic Advisory Practice Lead at J.S. Held.
Credit Discipline Holds Despite Greater Economic Optimism
Despite the improvement in economic sentiment, lenders reported little change in their overall approach to loan structures. Fifty-seven percent expect to maintain existing structures, compared with 56% in Q3, while 28% expect to tighten requirements and 15% expect to relax them. Loan structures considered in the survey include requirements related to collateral, guarantees, advance rates, and loan covenants.
The complete Q4 results reveal how lending posture varies based on credit size, including meaningful differences in how lenders expect to structure facilities of different sizes. For borrowers approaching a refinancing or other capital event, the loan-size analysis provides an important additional dimension to the headline lending results.
"For companies preparing to refinance, the survey reinforces the importance of starting the process early and understanding how lenders are evaluating risk. Credit structures overall have changed very little from Q3, but the results show that lender posture can vary considerably based on the size of the credit. Borrowers should be prepared to demonstrate financial performance, liquidity, and their ability to support the proposed capital structure under a range of economic and interest-rate scenarios," said Kevin Doyle, study author and Director in J.S. Held's Strategic Advisory practice.
Businesses Continue to Invest and Pursue Growth
Against this backdrop, lenders report that many of their customers continue to plan investments in their businesses over the next six to 12 months. Introducing new products or services was the most frequently cited initiative, increasing from 41.5% in Q3 to 45.5% in Q4. Planned capital investment also increased, from 40.9% to 44.8%.
Beyond these leading priorities, respondents identified plans among customers to raise additional capital, enter new markets, and hire employees. The complete report examines these priorities across a broader range of business activities, providing additional insight into where companies expect to deploy capital and pursue growth.
For companies balancing growth plans with existing debt obligations, the findings reinforce the importance of considering refinancing within a broader capital strategy that accounts for anticipated investment needs, liquidity, and access to additional capital.
Geopolitical, Policy, and Industry Risks Remain in Focus
Greater economic optimism has not eliminated lender concerns about potential sources of disruption. Geopolitical risk/war remained the most frequently cited factor with the potential to affect the near-term economy, increasing to 36.8% in Q4. Lenders also continued to identify policy risk, political uncertainty, and the potential for a US recession among the factors influencing the economic outlook.
Financial Services remained the industry most frequently identified by lenders as likely to experience volatility during the coming six months. The full report examines lender expectations across a broader range of industries, providing additional insight into where respondents anticipate volatility and potential disruption.
Lender expectations for Federal Reserve policy also shifted meaningfully in Q4, with respondents increasingly anticipating higher interest rates during the coming six months. The full report provides the distribution of lenders' rate expectations and quarter-over-quarter analysis of how that outlook has changed.
Together, the findings illustrate an important feature of the Q4 lending environment: lenders can hold a more favorable view of the overall economy while continuing to exercise discipline around individual credit decisions. Persistent geopolitical, policy, interest-rate and sector-specific risks remain part of the environment in which lenders are evaluating borrowers and deploying capital.