Owing to myriad negative factors, ACT Research continues to pull back on out-year expectations. Weak carrier profitability and still tractionless freight rates, expected tariff-driven goods inflation, a freight air pocket likely following the goods pull-forward in 1H 2025, and uncertainty surrounding US economic policy and the status of the EPA’s low NOx Clean Truck regulation, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.

“This is the time of the year that heavy truck orders are weak. That seasonal weakness has been compounded by the aftershocks of April’s tariff and policy announcements, which continue to reverberate. Policy uncertainty coupled with still weak for-hire rate and profitability fundamentals, have exacerbated that seasonal order weakness,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Using June data, the tractor order trends for the past 12m, 6m SAAR and 3m SAAR are 176k, 129k and 97k, respectively.”

Despite front-end order weakness, tractor sales have remained firm, rising since the onset of tariffs, as companies seek to take advantage of tariff-free equipment in inventory. With tariff-free inventory increasingly consumed, retail sales are expected to cool in the coming months as prices move higher.

Regarding vocational demand, Vieth added, “Much like the tractor market, vocational orders continue to trend lower, with the 12m, 6m SAAR, and 3m SAAR order levels at 86k, 60k, and 54k units, respectively.”

The N.A. CV OUTLOOK reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.