Cass Information Systems Inc. has released the September 2025 Cass Transportation Index Report, which found that North American shipment volumes and expenditures both improved month to month last month, showing a reversal of recent trends. Additionally, both indexes beat normal seasonal expectations. 

Year over year, however, freight volumes stay well below 2024 levels, according to the report. 

Cass Freight Index - Shipments

• The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose 2.5% m/m in September, 1.5% m/m in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, reversing a 1.5% SA drop in August.

• The y/y decline in shipments narrowed to 5.4% in September from a 9.3% y/y decline in August.

For the second straight month, truckload volumes rose slightly within the data, but LTL volumes declined. We think the LTL declines reflect ongoing available TL capacity—where low rates lead shippers to consolidate LTL loads into truckloads—and private fleet insourcing. The positivity in TL volumes may be temporary, as pre-tariff shipping may lead to more air pockets in demand.

Just as we correctly expected tariff reprieves to support a recovery in September volumes, we also expect tariffs to result in volume declines and additional softness as price increases reduce affordability and impact spending.

• After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and is trending toward another considerable decline in 2025.

• In October, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 6% y/y on the normal seasonal pattern. 

Cass Freight Index - Expenditures

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 5.1% m/m in September. Expenditures were 2.2% above the year-ago level in September, after a 0.4% y/y decline in August.

The flattish results of the past few months were a combination of lower shipments and higher rates.

• In seasonally adjusted terms, the index rose 2.5% m/m, with shipments up 1.5%

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. 

Truckload Linehaul Index

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 1.7% m/m in September, after a 1.8% decrease in August.

• The y/y increase accelerated to 2.6% in September from 1.2% in August.

This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and is trending toward a modest 1%-2% increase in 2025. 

Freight Expectations

While demand trends are mixed and the outlook remains cloudy, capacity continues to contract. Class 8 tractor production is on track to decline about 32% from 1H to 2H this year, to a rate several thousand trucks per month below what is needed to maintain the fleet size. In our view, lower capacity in an otherwise stable demand environment could move the cycle forward and actually create for-hire demand by reversing the insourcing of recent years. But this will take time.  

The recent trends in our ACT Driver Availability Index suggest the driver market is no longer loose, but not yet tight. This index, from a survey of medium and large fleets, needed to fall below 40 the last two cycles before rates responded.

The new rules on non-domiciled drivers could tighten driver capacity over the next one-to-two years, and the net effects of the immigration crackdown should be captured in the ACT Driver Availability Index.