U.S. trailer net orders rose 30% month-over-month (m/m) in September to 10,142 units but were 19% lower year-over-year (y/y), according to FTR Transportation Intelligence's latest analysis of the U.S. trailer market. Despite the m/m improvement, orders continue to lag well behind the 10-year September average of 29,890 units as weak freight demand, tariff pressures, and pricing uncertainty persist. Cancellations also climbed m/m, reaching 25% of gross orders due mainly to the dry van segment.

The 2026 order season may begin later than usual. The y/y decline in September suggests that some buyers are holding off until freight market conditions improve and/or there is greater clarity regarding trade policy and input costs.

For 2025 to date, net trailer orders total 120,750 units, up 23% y/y and averaging just over 13,400 units per month. As FTR has noted previously, this overall strength largely reflects backloaded demand following the November 2024 election, which boosted activity in the first quarter of 2025.

U.S. trailer production increased in September with builds up 5% m/m and 15% y/y to 17,899 units. Output for 2025 to date totaled 151,743 units, down 19% y/y. Backlogs fell 9% m/m and 12% y/y to 74,824 units, reducing the backlog/build ratio to 4.2 months – the lowest level since mid-2020. With production continuing to outpace order activity, OEMs face increasing pressure to align output with a softening demand environment as the industry transitions into 2026.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “The U.S. trailer market faces mounting cost pressures and policy uncertainty amid rising global trade tensions, especially with China. Separate from a threatened 100% tariff on all imports from China, the U.S. is imposing, effective November 9, a 100% tariff on imports of certain port cargo handling equipment from China, including intermodal chassis and parts.

“Moreover, the Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper – explicitly expanded in August to include non-U.S. content in trailers and components – are driving higher input costs, margin compression and consolidation pressures. Larger, vertically integrated OEMs are better positioned to manage the impact while smaller firms face growing financial strain. Many fleets are delaying replacement, extending equipment life cycles and slowing or stopping expansion.”