The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand balance increased in September, as freight volumes and capacity increased. 

VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index increased 8.8 points m/m to 55.1 (SA) in September, from 46.3 in August. September marked a 13-month high as inventory building continued on tariff concerns, and consumer spending continued to exceed expectations. Growing consumer pessimism and slowing real income growth as consumers begin to feel the effects of tariffs remain risks to volumes in the short term. In addition to inflationary pressures, the expected payback from numerous freight pull forwards will likely weigh on volumes in the coming months.

While the outlook in the near term is choppy for volumes broadly, private fleets beginning to relent market share is positive for for-hire volumes moving forward.

PRICING INDEX:
The Pricing Index increased 1.6 points m/m in September, to 53.5 (SA) from 51.9 in August, on improved for-hire volumes and further capacity contraction. After over two years of significant capacity growth, lower Class 8 retail sales are finally leading to contraction in the fleet, and pre-tariff shipping demand is also likely helping to underpin current rate improvement. And operating authority revocations have picked up recently, further tightening supply.

While supply is clearly tightening, the outlook for the volume side of the equation remains choppier in the short term, and may counterbalance some of the effects of supply tightening.

CAPACITY INDEX:
The Capacity Index increased 2.1 points m/m, to 47.5 in September from 45.4 in August. Capacity continues to contract as current industry financial conditions remain a constraint on investment. The pullback in capital spending, as well as the necessary evil of small fleet failures, will help to tighten capacity further. Ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs and regulations is also likely to keep equipment buying under pressure in the short term.

This index has been at or below the neutral 50 level for 26 of the past 28 months.

DRIVERS:
The Driver Availability Index increased 1.9 points, to 51.9 in September from 50.0 in August. After falling below 50 for the first time in 37 months in June, driver availability stabilized since, but it is still slowing overall. Fleets are not yet struggling too much at this point, but availability of quality drivers appears to be more of a challenge than in the past few years.

After three years of declining for-hire rates, volumes and profitability, cost-cutting measures are starting to take drivers and driving schools out of the market. The medium and large fleets in our survey have seen a steady supply through the long freight downturn, but driver availability has recently begun to slowly contract amid an uncertain and soft freight outlook, and the immigration crackdown is likely a factor. While a tighter driver supply is a potential catalyst for a new cycle, demand is needed, too.

FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS:
Fleet purchase intentions were flat m/m in September, with 40% of respondents planning on buying new equipment in the next three months. While a relatively strong reading for 2025, it remains well below the 54% long-term average.

Overall, buying sentiment is expected to remain below the long-term average as we enter the 13th quarter of a for-hire downturn, compared to the six-to-eight quarter historical average. Additional concerns over tariffs/cost of new equipment and the ongoing uncertainty regarding the future of the EPA’27 regulations is also likely weighing on equipment investment. Recent import tariff clarifications may have cleared some of the haze, but much still lingers.

SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:
The Supply-Demand Balance increased in September to 57.6 (SA), from 51.0 in August, on improved volumes spurred by tariff concerns and further supported by capacity contractions.

The supply-demand balance may retrench in the coming months, as we’re likely near the payback period following the demand surge ahead of tariffs. Additionally, goods inflation is expected to pick up in the coming months. Weaker goods demand will be counteracted somewhat by capacity contractions, but strong demand and tight supply is needed for a new freight cycle to take hold.

PRODUCTIVITY INDEX:
(miles/tractor)

Fleet productivity decreased 4.3 points m/m, to 48.9 (SA) in September, on a still declining, but small uptick m/m in our capacity index and increased volumes.

The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index is a monthly survey of for-hire trucking service providers. ACT Research converts responses into diffusion indexes, where the neutral or flat activity level is 50.