The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand balance decreased in October, as freight volumes and capacity declined. 

VOLUME INDEX:

The Volume Index decreased 8.1 points to 47.0 (SA) in October, from September’s 13-month high of 55.1. The payback period we’ve oft mentioned following pull-forwards appears to be roosting in Q4. While consumers have so far remained resilient, evidence from industry participants points to a muted holiday season, with many equipment suppliers seeing very soft demand ahead of the holidays. Other key freight generating industries like manufacturing and housing remain stuck in neutral, or worse. While data center investment growth is keeping the economy afloat, there isn’t a whole lot of freight in a data center.

While the outlook in the near term is choppy for volumes broadly, just as pre-tariff shipping activity earlier this year was temporary, so too will be the paybacks.

PRICING INDEX:

The Pricing Index decreased 1.8 points m/m in October, to 51.7 (SA) from 53.5 in September, as volumes softened. In the near term, the pre-tariff payback is freeing up capacity and keeping a lid on rates. But fleet exits, industry build below replacement, and marginal driver take outs are pulling excess capacity out of the market.

While lower volumes are counterbalancing much of the tightening at this point, the payback softness should also be temporary, so supply and demand dynamics will eventually support higher rates. Additionally, the reversal of private fleet growth this year supports for-hire demand, particularly in the dedicated market.

CAPACITY INDEX:

The Capacity Index decreased 0.7 points m/m, to 46.8 in October from 47.5 in September. Capacity continues to contract as current levels of profitability remain a constraint on investment. The pullback of private fleets, as well as the necessary evil of small fleet failures, will also continue to tighten capacity. Ongoing tariff and regulatory uncertainty are also likely to slow equipment buying in the short term, though recent news from ATA suggesting modified low-NOx rules, rather than an outright delay, could spur some fleet investment.

This index has been at or below the neutral 50 level for 26 of the past 29 months.

DRIVERS:

The Driver Availability Index decreased 1.9 points, to 50.0 in October from 51.9 in September. After falling below 50 for the first time in 37 months in June, driver availability crept up since, but is still slowing overall. Fleets are not yet struggling too much at this point, but availability of quality drivers appears to be more of a challenge than in the past few years.

After three years of declining for-hire rates, volumes, and profitability, cost-cutting measures are starting to take drivers and driving schools out of the market. The medium and large fleets in our survey have seen a steady supply through the long freight downturn, but driver availability has recently begun to slowly contract amid an uncertain and soft freight outlook, and the immigration crackdown is likely a factor. While a tighter driver supply is a potential catalyst for a new cycle, demand is needed too.

FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS:

Fleet purchase intentions fell m/m in October, with 36% of respondents planning on buying new equipment in the next three months. While a relatively strong reading for 2025, it’s the lowest October reading since 2016, and is well below the 56% historical average for the month.

Overall, buying sentiment is expected to remain below the long-term average as we enter the 13th quarter of a for-hire downturn, compared to the six-to-eight quarter historical average. Positively, the ATA’s recent announcement regarding EPA’27 provides some needed clarity regarding regulations, while still leaving the door open for changes and no final word until March/April. Section 232 tariffs will also still weigh on purchase intentions.

SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:

The Supply-Demand Balance decreased in October to 50.3 (SA), from 57.6 in September, on weaker volumes as pull-forwards have now given way to an air pocket in Q4.

The supply-demand balance is unlikely to improve meaningfully in the short term, as the payback period following the demand surge ahead of tariffs likely lasts a few months. Additionally, goods inflation may pick up as pre-tariff inventories are depleted, but tariff cuts have begun. Lower goods demand will be counteracted somewhat by capacity contractions, but lower tariffs and the end of the tariff payback may support a recovery.

PRODUCTIVITY INDEX:

(miles/tractor)

Fleet productivity increased 1.3 points m/m, to 50.2 (SA) in October, as capacity ticked down further and as driver availability, while still neutral/growing, decreased m/m.

The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index is a monthly survey of for-hire trucking service providers. ACT Research converts responses into diffusion indexes, where the neutral or flat activity level is 50.