ACT Research released its ACT For-Hire Trucking Index for November, which indicated the supply and demand balance increased in November, as freight volumes and capacity increased.
VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index increased 7.6 points to 54.6 (SA) in November, recovering from a post-tariff dip to 47.0 in October. Though housing-related sectors remain soft, consumer spending is growing and supporting freight as inflation slows. Low oil prices and the failure of feared tariff price increases to materialize amid legal questions likely all contributed to the m/m improvement in volumes. Tariffs will continue to drag on growth, but some reversals have begun, and the future of IEEPA tariffs looks tenuous. If reversed, it would aid affordability, reduce inflation, and help lower interest rates, which is needed to spur the housing market.
The outlook in the near term is choppy for volumes broadly, just as pre-tariff shipping activity earlier this year was temporary, so too will be the paybacks.
CAPACITY INDEX:
The Capacity Index increased 2.1 points m/m, to 48.9 in November from 46.8 in October. Capacity continues to contract as current levels of profitability remain a constraint on investment. The pullback of private fleets, as well as the necessary evil of small fleet failures, will also continue to tighten capacity. Mid-November’s clarity regarding EPA’27 may be helping to reduce the capacity contraction, but prebuying will likely be modest amid limited investment budgets.
This index has been at or below the neutral 50 level for 27 of the past 29 months.
DRIVERS:
The Driver Availability Index increased 1.0 points, to 51.0 in November from 50.0 in October. After falling below 50 for the first time in 37 months in June, driver availability has been hovering around neutral. Much has been made of recent changes to driver rules and regulations, but as evidenced by our special survey question below, they have yet to make a meaningful impact.
The medium and large fleets in our survey have seen a steady and loose driver supply through the long freight downturn, but driver availability has slowed to neutral amidst the extended period of weak profitability. The federal immigration crackdown has likely helped slow driver availability and is likely to contribute to tighter capacity from here.
FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS:
Fleet purchase intentions rose 7.9pps m/m in November, with 43% of respondents planning on buying new equipment in the next three months. While the strongest reading of 2025, it’s the lowest November reading since 2011, and is well below the 55% historical average for the month.
Overall, buying sentiment is expected to remain below the long-term average as we enter the 13th quarter of a for-hire downturn, compared to the six-to-eight quarter historical average. Positively, the ATA’s recent announcement regarding EPA’27 provides some needed clarity regarding regulations, while still leaving the door open for changes and no final word until March/April. Section 232 tariffs will also still weigh on purchase intentions.
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:
The Supply-Demand Balance increased in November to 55.7 (SA), from 50.3 in October, on higher volumes and continued capacity contractions.
The supply-demand balance is likely to remain choppy in the near term, but successive winter storms affecting large portions of the US east of the Mississippi may create some backlogged loads and help to briefly tighten the market. Longer term, capacity continues to fall from the supply side, and based on recent production cuts, we estimate 4k-5k tractors are exiting the population every month, tightening capacity. Demand is needed too, and though tariffs are a drag, consumers continue to support the economy. Additionally, lower interest rates in 2026 should help to rehabilitate sectors like housing.
PRODUCTIVITY INDEX:
(miles/tractor)
Fleet productivity increased 3.7 points m/m, to 53.9 (SA) in November on improved volumes and lower capacity.
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index is a monthly survey of for-hire trucking service providers. ACT Research converts responses into diffusion indexes, where the neutral or flat activity level is 50.