ACT Research has released its monthly For-Hire Trucking Index, a monthly survey of for-hire trucking service providers.

VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index decreased 4.4 points to 56.3 (SA) in January, remaining elevated, though with a bit less winter storm-induced tightness than December. While demand may soften seasonally in the coming months, the volume outlook is aided by lower inflation as a result of the Supreme Court striking down IEEPA tariffs. With soft housing and job markets, freight demand is unlikely to surge without a larger than expected drop in interest rates. But with replacement tariffs also legally questionable and expiring in July, shippers may be nearing a restock.

Pre-tariff inventories are drawing down and firmer economic footing and stronger for-hire demand trends are adding to a sense of cautious optimism.

PRICING INDEX:
The Pricing Index was essentially flat, up 0.1 points m/m in January, to 58.8 (SA) from 58.7 in December, as winter storms tightened capacity and aided volumes this month, creating a backlog of loads. Broadly speaking, pricing has improved this year on sustained capacity exits and choppy, if gradually improving, volumes in the market. Additionally, private fleets ceding growth after a large expansion has driven more loads onto for-hire carriers.

Though the current tightness is partly temporary weather effects, tightening supply and demand dynamics are also driving rates higher and will continue after the weather warms. The velocity of the recent run-up in spot rates suggests capacity is becoming more acute, but it will take time for the spot tightness to reflect in contract rates. 

CAPACITY INDEX:
The Capacity Index decreased 1.5 points m/m, to 48.4 in January from 49.9 in December, the 10th consecutive month in neutral/contraction territory. Capacity continues to contract as current levels of profitability remain a constraint on investment. Weather also had an effect, allowing for an improvement in the coming months. Increased truck orders since the recent news that EPA’27 will still happen at lower cost is driving some purchasing, but prebuying will likely be modest amid limited investment budgets.

This index has been at or below the neutral 50 level for 29 of the past 32 months. Though the freight cycle is beginning to kick into gear, it will likely be hard for fleets to expand capacity amid the immigration crackdown.

DRIVERS:
The Driver Availability Index decreased 10.6 points, to 45.0 in January from 55.6 in December. While no doubt impacted by weather in December and January, the large drop suggests tighter driver regulations are beginning to affect the market. However, the new nondomicile rules don’t take effect until mid-March, so additional tightness is likely as drivers exit the market. Driver availability is a key component of capacity in the market, and additional scarcity seems likely, supporting higher freight rates.

The medium and large fleets in our survey have seen a steady and loose driver supply through the long freight downturn, and their driver availability isn’t necessarily reflective of the total market. The new driver rules may accelerate the pace of capacity exits initially but will likely take a few years to fully play out.

FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS:
Fleet purchase intentions fell 5.8pps m/m in January, with 43% of respondents planning on buying new equipment in the next three months, well below the 54% long-term average. Buying is likely to remain somewhat subdued as for-hire margins remain thin, but clarity around EPA’27, the likely increase in equipment cost increase that comes with it, and the recent increases in freight rates will likely support buying intentions in 2026. Some of the recent strength reflected temporary deferred purchasing, but in addition to regulatory-driven buying, an increasingly older fleet is likely to drive demand for new equipment as well.

SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:
The Supply-Demand Balance decreased in January to a still elevated 57.9 (SA), from 60.8 in December, as volume declines outweighed capacity contractions. While gains may relax as the weather improves, there are positives entering 2026. The economy continues to exceed expectations, and beyond the temporary effects, the freight cycle has improved. Capacity continues to exit the market, though a small prebuy ahead of EPA’27 will slow the velocity of tightening, and the potential tailwind of IEEPA tariff reversals seems likely.  

Additionally, lower interest rates in 2026 may help to rehabilitate rate-sensitive sectors like housing and construction.

PRODUCTIVITY INDEX:
(miles/tractor)

Fleet productivity decreased 4.9 points m/m, to 57.0 (SA) in January from 61.9 in December, on the m/m decrease in volumes.