ACT Research released its December For-Hire Index, a monthly survey of for-hire trucking service providers, finding that volume and other factors showed improvements in December 2025.

VOLUME INDEX:
The Volume Index increased 7.0 points to 61.6 (SA) in December, a four-year high, as successive winter storms in the Midwest at the beginning of the month tightened capacity and positive consumer holiday spending aided demand. While the run up during November and December is likely to pare some of the gains as weather warms, the sharp surge indicates the elasticity of supply is getting tighter. Additionally, inflation and volumes could be aided by the Supreme Court striking down IEEPA tariffs. However, whether the decision is made tomorrow, or mid-year, will have an impact on freight in 2026. Soft freight volumes across modes in December suggest weather was the main factor improving demand, and shippers may hesitate to restock until the SCOTUS decision.    

Pre-tariff inventories are drawing down, but this will be temporary. Firmer economic footing going into 2026 and signs of freight positivity are adding to a sense of cautious optimism.

PRICING INDEX:
The Pricing Index increased 4.2 points m/m in December, to 59.3 (SA) from 55.1 in November, as winter storms tightened capacity and created a backlog of loads, aiding volumes this month. Broadly speaking, pricing has slowly improved this year on sustained capacity exits and choppy, if gradually improving, volumes in the market. DAT equipment posts were down 28% y/y in 2025, while load posts rose 19% y/y. Additionally, private fleets ceding growth after over two years of growth has driven more loads onto for-hire carriers.

Though the current weather-driven tightness is partly temporary, tightening supply and demand dynamics will eventually support higher rates.

CAPACITY INDEX:
The Capacity Index increased 1.2 points m/m, to 50.1 in December from 48.9 in November, above 50 for the first time since March, but very much in neutral/flat territory. Capacity continues to contract as current levels of profitability remain a constraint on investment. Mid-November’s clarity regarding EPA’27 may be helping to reduce the capacity contraction, but prebuying will likely be modest amid limited investment budgets. But as spot rates jumped in December, fleets tapped the brakes on the belt tightening.

This index has been at or below the neutral 50 level for 26 of the past 30 months.

DRIVERS:
The Driver Availability Index increased 4.6 points, to 55.6 in December from 51.0 in November. Much has been made of stricter language and immigration status requirements, but our index shows, at least in the near term, recent changes have had little to no impact on the supply of drivers. The stickiness of the driver index is somewhat head-scratching given the duration of the for-hire downturn and the number of capacity exits that have occurred. Driver availability is a key component of capacity in the market, and continued ease to find drivers will slow rate improvement.

The medium and large fleets in our survey have seen a steady and loose driver supply through the long freight downturn, and their driver availability isn’t necessarily reflective of the total market. Harsher immigration enforcement may eventually weigh on the driver population, but given the varying degrees of enforcement by state, it may be more of a rolling effect over the next year or two.

FLEET PURCHASE INTENTIONS:
Fleet purchase intentions rose 6.3pps m/m in November, with 50% of respondents planning on buying new equipment in the next three months. While the strongest reading of 2025 and a 14-month survey high, this remains below the 54% historical average. Buying is likely to remain somewhat subdued as for-hire margins remain thin, but clarity around EPA’27, and the likely increase in equipment costs that comes with it, will likely increase buying intentions in 2026. While some deferred purchasing has been ordered, that strength may be partly temporary. But besides regulatory-driven buying, an increasingly older fleet is likely to drive demand for new equipment as well.

SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE:
The Supply-Demand Balance increased in December to 61.5 (SA), from 55.7 in November, a four-year high, on improved volumes and balanced capacity related to December’s string of winter storms. While gains may relax as the weather improves, there are positives entering 2026. The economy continues to exceed expectations, and there are temporary aspects to both the increases in supply and demand this month. Capacity continues to exit the market, though a small prebuy ahead of EPA’27 will slow velocity of tightening, and the potential tailwind of IEEPA tariff reversals seems likelier than not.

Additionally, lower interest rates in 2026 may help to rehabilitate rate-sensitive sectors like housing and construction.

PRODUCTIVITY INDEX:
(miles/tractor)

Fleet productivity surged 8.8 points m/m, to 62.7 (SA) in December from 53.9 in November, on the increase in volumes related to weather, strong holiday spending, and flat capacity.