The longest freight downturn on record, as measured by year-over-year changes in the Cass Freight Index, ended in August.

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index increased 2.1% year over year, marking the first year-over-year gain since January 2023 and bringing a 42-month downturn to a close.

Cass Freight Index - Shipments

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose 5/6% m/m and 2.1% y/y in August, marking the first y/y gain since January 2023. This ends a 42-month downturn by this measure, the longest on record.

In SA terms, shipments rose 5.0% m/m in August, essentially reversing declines in June and July.

As this roughly offsets the declines in the past few months, we hesitate to describe this as a major improvement in freight demand.

The normal seasonal trend would put the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index up about 1% y/y in September.

Cass Freight Index - Expenditures

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, accelerated to 19% y/y growth in August to 3.72, up from a 9.1% gain in July, driven mostly by higher shipments.

In SA terms, the index rose 6.0% m/m after falling 2.1% in July, with a 5.0% gain in shipments, implying a ~1.0% increase in overall rates.

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. In 2025, the index declined by 0.5%.

Cass Truckload Linehaul Index

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose to 153.9 in August, up 0.7% m/m and up 11.3% y/y.

The sequential increase is in line with expectations and as indicated by the spot market. Even as spot rates slow with modest sequential declines, the much larger contract market is adjusting higher.  

This index reflects the whole for-hire truckload market, both spot and contract rates.

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and turned up to a 1.8% increase in 2025. In 2026, with no further change, the index is on pace for a 7% increase. 

ACT Freight Expectations 

With economic growth strong even amid a soft job market, and a restock likely beginning with ocean volumes rising and tariff refunds happening, the bottom is probably in. While likely modest, freight growth should continue.

Risks remain elevated, particularly with oil prices, inflation, and interest rates, but for now, the U.S. economy is growing well. Class 8 tractor sales rose above replacement levels in July and August, allowing the fleet to expand for the first time after tightening for the past 18 months.

While capacity constraints from new regulations and broker liability law have raised barriers to entry and will limit the industry’s ability to add capacity, the trajectory of volumes is likely to be supported by an expanding fleet. And shippers seem to have some extra wherewithal to rebuild inventories with IEEPA refunds kicking into gear in recent months. This helped corporate profit margins hit record highs in Q2, limiting the risks from a soft job market.