A number of factors have challenged economic growth in 2015, among them a second straight severe winter, the West Coast port strike, a strong dollar and collapse of oil prices, but assuming the first two were anomalies, there should be marginal improvement for 2016 according to a new forecast.

The MAPI Foundation, the research affiliate of the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation, released its quarterly economic forecast, predicting that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product will expand 2.3% in 2015, down from 2.4% in the May 2015 report, and increase to 2.9% in 2016, a slight decline from 3.0% in the previous forecast. GDP growth for 2017 is anticipated to be 2.7% representing no change from the May forecast.

Manufacturing production is expected to decelerate, with growth of 2.1% in 2015 (a decline from 2.5% in the previous forecast) before rising to 3.4% in 2016, but below the 4.0% predicted in the May report. The forecast of 3.1% growth in 2017 remains unchanged.

Selected Highlights from the Report:

Production in non-high-tech manufacturing is expected to increase 2.3% in 2015, 3.3% in 2016, and 2.9% in 2017. High-tech manufacturing production, which accounts for approximately 5% of all manufacturing, is anticipated to grow 1.5% in 2015, 6.1% in 2016, and 5.9% in 2017.

The forecast for inflation-adjusted investment in equipment is for growth of 3.1% in 2015, 7.9% in 2016, and 5.9% in 2017. Capital equipment spending in high-tech sectors will also rise. Inflation-adjusted expenditures for information processing equipment are anticipated to increase by 1.7% in 2015 before improving to 10.2% in 2016, and 9.6% in 2017. The MAPI Foundation expects industrial equipment expenditures to advance 6.1% in 2015, 13.0% in 2016, and 8.5% in 2017. Spending on transportation equipment is forecast to increase 6.8% in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016 but decline by 1.1% in 2017.

To read the full MAPI Foundation forecast, click here.