According to ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report, January heavy-duty (HD) orders were relatively weak, but it remains to be seen whether this represented a pause after robust year-end orders, or the beginning of a more broad-based pullback in demand. Notably, both HD and medium-duty (MD) seasonally adjusted retail sales were robust.

According to Eric Crawford, ACT Research’s Vice President, Senior Analyst, “Heavy-duty retail sales (SA) rose 29 percent year over year to 29,200 units (23,765 nominal). The 1,389-upd rate (SA) was 22.9 percent ahead of the year-ago rate, 15.5 percent above the full-year 2022 average, and up 4.5 percent month over month.” He continued, “Classes 5-7 retail sales (SA) rose 6.1 percent year over year to 20,800 units (17,669 nominal). The 993-upd rate (SA) was 1.0 percent ahead of the year-ago rate, 10.3 percent above the sales rate averaged throughout 2022, and up 15.1 percent month over month.”

Crawford concluded, “Business activity in the truck industry rolls on, with retail sales seemingly unphased by higher interest rates, as pent-up demand remains, for now. We expect this dynamic to shift in the second half 2023, as the Fed continues its aggressive push to subdue inflation.”